Description

This analysis provides a forecast of FIL prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2025-01-26 3.980893 4.337920 4.733079 5.207051 5.765833 6.411119 7.224024
2025-02-02 3.600117 4.087959 4.668446 5.425610 6.412310 7.694423 9.562516
2025-02-09 3.334866 3.892077 4.588752 5.554222 6.913409 8.862345 12.111931
2025-02-16 3.071747 3.651175 4.400402 5.484080 7.099592 9.603549 14.295757
2025-02-23 2.873825 3.466632 4.254500 5.435818 7.287274 10.370405 16.865963
2025-03-02 2.708581 3.306762 4.119965 5.376887 7.434829 11.094795 19.760569
2025-03-09 2.569516 3.169113 4.000202 5.319382 7.566030 11.817232 23.163469
2025-03-16 2.462809 3.066978 3.920073 5.309734 7.771695 12.743089 27.967069
2025-03-23 2.396064 3.015248 3.907450 5.403450 8.176827 14.234642 36.587156
2025-03-30 2.286686 2.894752 3.781154 5.292632 8.171594 14.775846 42.534475
2025-04-06 2.187378 2.783181 3.660434 5.178407 8.140066 15.246385 49.301924
2025-04-13 2.078684 2.652474 3.502094 4.984577 7.917376 15.144076 52.804615
2025-04-20 2.041148 2.626583 3.508007 5.084813 8.338775 17.061034 78.694409
2025-04-27 2.028570 2.636965 3.571670 5.296255 9.053085 20.357943 161.674192
2025-05-04 1.998857 2.619170 3.587642 5.419901 9.597016 23.558268 435.521311
2025-05-11 1.936289 2.547387 3.509259 5.352567 9.656422 24.906221 1120.477910
2025-05-18 1.881930 2.485968 3.444632 5.306215 9.762616 26.591860 58812.480810
2025-05-25 1.829514 2.425370 3.377967 5.249600 9.832243 28.210625 NaN
2025-06-01 1.780703 2.368519 3.314686 5.194340 9.896970 29.922661 NaN
2025-06-08 1.742373 2.326809 3.275296 5.185067 10.092295 32.683235 NaN
2025-06-15 1.721784 2.312558 3.282782 5.275121 10.603214 38.407820 NaN
2025-06-22 1.672597 2.250266 3.202277 5.168629 10.490930 39.401076 NaN
2025-06-29 1.625397 2.189808 3.122659 5.058801 10.352582 40.118685 NaN